A prolonged period of low wind speeds across Texas has forced the state’s power companies to ramp up fossil fuel generation to unprecedented levels in 2025. This shift could potentially lead to delays or cancellations of scheduled maintenance for power plants in the spring.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which oversees one of the largest power systems in the United States, serves approximately 75% of the state’s land area. This includes energy-intensive industrial zones along the southern coast of Texas.
Typically, ERCOT schedules maintenance for power plants in March and April, as energy demand is lower between the winter heating season and the peak summer months, when demand for air conditioning soars. This year, however, ERCOT had planned for about 17% of its thermal power generation capacity—roughly 85,000 megawatts—to be offline for maintenance in March. This would require certain plants to reduce output or temporarily cease operations.
However, with wind power generation falling well below expected levels, ERCOT has had to keep fossil fuel plants running at near-record levels, squeezing the time available for necessary maintenance.
Wind Power Shortfall
Wind farms typically provide more than a third of ERCOT’s total power during the early months of the year, benefiting from high winter wind speeds that help boost clean energy production. Yet, in February 2025, ERCOT’s wind generation was 18% lower than the same month in 2024, according to data from LSEG. This resulted in wind power making up only 26% of the total ERCOT generation in February, compared to 36% a year earlier.
In response to this wind shortfall, power companies increased coal plant generation by 49% year-on-year, achieving the highest February output in three years. Additionally, natural gas-fired plants saw a 33% increase in output from February 2024, with fossil fuel plants continuing to operate at high levels into March as wind generation remains subdued.
Forecast Challenges
Power traders had expected a recovery in wind generation during March and April, historically the months with the highest wind output in the ERCOT system. While wind production showed some signs of improvement in early March, forecasts for the coming weeks indicate another dip in output.
Long-term wind generation forecasts are often unreliable, leading power planners to rely more heavily on short-term predictions. This variability in wind power has meant that fossil fuel plants have had to increase their share of ERCOT’s generation, contributing 57% of the total in February 2025, compared to 54% in both February 2024 and February 2023.
Maintenance Window at Risk
If wind power remains below average in the coming weeks, power companies may struggle to complete essential maintenance on coal and gas-fired plants before the summer heat causes demand to surge. While newer plants may only require a few days of maintenance, older and more complex systems can take weeks to prepare for the peak summer months.
ERCOT estimates that Texas’ coal plants have an average age of around 50 years, while gas plants average 30 years. Both types of plants require frequent and extensive maintenance to ensure they can meet the high demand during the hot summer months.
Although ERCOT system demand levels are currently at their annual lows, with average temperatures in Houston expected to remain in the 75 to 80-degree Fahrenheit range through mid-March, the arrival of warmer weather in May means there is limited time for power companies to complete maintenance on Texas’ roughly 20 coal-fired, 17 oil-fired, and 162 natural gas-fired plants.
At normal wind generation levels, there would be ample opportunity to reduce output from thermal power plants and accommodate necessary maintenance. However, the weak winds this year may force ERCOT’s fossil fuel network to operate for longer than usual, shortening the window for maintenance crews to prepare plants for the summer demand surge.
Conclusion
Texas’ energy system is facing a delicate balancing act as low wind speeds continue to hinder renewable energy production. With the summer heat fast approaching, power companies are under pressure to maintain fossil fuel generation while also completing essential plant maintenance. The current reliance on coal and gas plants could leave maintenance crews with limited time to prepare for the summer demand, potentially affecting power reliability across the state.
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