Orders in the German machine tool industry experienced a sharp decline of 28% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year. This drop marks a significant downturn in an industry already grappling with slow growth.
Domestic vs. International Orders
Orders from within Germany fell by 13%, while international orders plummeted by 33%. For the first half of 2024, the decline was slightly less severe at 26%, with domestic orders decreasing by 7% and foreign orders dropping by 33%.
Dr. Markus Heering, executive director of the VDW (German Machine Tool Builders’ Association), based in Frankfurt am Main, commented on the situation: “The order volume is at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2020.” He noted that while domestic orders fared somewhat better than those from abroad, the overall outlook remained bleak. “The improvement seen in domestic orders is not indicative of a market turnaround but rather reflects a few project-based deals,” Heering added.
Sector-Wide Challenges
The decline in orders is widespread across all customer sectors, although some areas show relative resilience. Sectors such as aviation, medical technology, power engineering, and shipbuilding have seen slightly more positive developments. However, interest in electric vehicles remains tepid, as indicated by lackluster sales figures.
In contrast, sectors such as service, components, repairs, maintenance, and conversions are performing notably better. Automation continues to be a strong growth driver within the industry.
Future Outlook
The industry does not expect a significant stabilization of orders until the latter half of 2024, with particular hopes pinned on the final quarter. Key industry events, including the AMB in Stuttgart, IMTS in Chicago, and Jimtof in Tokyo, are anticipated to potentially boost demand.
Despite these hopeful signs, the overall forecast for 2024 remains pessimistic, with a substantial decline expected for the year as a whole.
Looking ahead, VDW’s forecasting partner, Oxford Economics, projects a broad-based recovery in demand for machine tools globally in 2025 and 2026. However, this recovery is expected to be weaker in Germany compared to international markets. “The forecast growth will not be sufficient to offset the losses incurred over the past two years,” Heering noted.
Despite a partial rebound in foreign markets to near 2018 levels in nominal terms, domestic markets are struggling due to structural issues. As a result, machine tool producers should brace for significant reductions in the current year, with a projected decline of 8%.